A new view on regional sea level scenarios: The case of the United Kingdom

Kantamaneni, Komali and Hornby, Katie . (2017). A new view on regional sea level scenarios: The case of the United Kingdom. In: 13th International Conference on Interdisciplinary Social Sciences , July 2018, Spain.

Abstract

Overwhelming climatic change scenarios considerably upsurge the sea level rise (SLR) and precipitation trends which accelerate the natural and anthropogenic hazards in several regions in the United Kingdom (UK) particularly in low-lying and coastal areas. Global sea level trends influence the United Kingdom (UK) especially along the Norfolk and Suffolk coastlines in south-east England. Sea levels have risen by circa 2 mm yr-1 at Lowestoft, circa 1.2 mm at Newlyn and the rise in local sea level creates increased risk at many locations around the UK. Accordingly, to identify the current trends of sea level rise and precipitation trends around the UK, the current study analysed the time series sea level change data based upon the longest sea level records in the UK. Besides, precipitation trends were also examined and subsequently, regression models were constructed. Results highlighted that a positive correlation suggesting that sea levels had risen between 1920 and 2014. This was given by the regression equation y = 1.8419x – 3548.5. The coefficient of determination showed that over three-quarters of sea level variation was explained by the passage of time (R2 = 83%) and was indicative of a steady sea level rise of almost 2mm yr -1. Whereas as precipitation trends statistically significant linear trend existed (p<0.01), suggesting that there was an increase in UK rainfall through a time of circa 1mm yr-1. However, these trends are the indication of the upsurge in the intensity of SLR and precipitation trends in the UK.

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